Work package 1: Coupling between the tropics and high latitudes and its role in seasonal and multiannual forecast predictability (lead by L. Gray and S. Osprey)

Workpackage 1 examines the links between the upper atmosphere and near-surface weather and climate. Many previous studies have established robust observational correlations between upper-air winds near the equator and the circulation at high latitudes. It is known that the direction of the wind in the tropical stratosphere and the strength of the high-latitude winds, can predispose Northern European winters to be either cold and dry or warm and stormy. Knowing in advance the winds in the stratosphere on seasonal-interannual timescales can benefit weather centres and ultimately inform sectors in government, business and the wider public.

Here we examine these links between the stratosphere and troposphere using global climate model simulations from GOTHAM Investigator and project partner groups, weather centres and observations. Using these models we set out to better understand the processes, pathways and direction-of-influence of those phenomena bridging the tropics and high-latitudes, the upper atmosphere and the near-surface. By bringing together experts in the use of large climate models and advanced complex-network techniques, we will provide new insight into global scale teleconnections.